Stop Falling for the Health Statistics Lie: What the Numbers Aren’t Telling You About Your Health

Chris Shiflett
May 14
8 min read

Chris Shiflett, D.C. CFMP

Everywhere you turn, you're hit with bold claims.

“Cuts your risk in half!” “Reduces disease by 50%!” “Doubles your chances!”

Sounds powerful, right?

But let me ask you something—50% of what?

Because here's the truth: most people—even doctors—are basing serious health decisions on misunderstood statistics. They're quoting relative risk, which sounds impressive but often hides the real story.

If you care about your health—and especially if you're making decisions about medications, surgeries, or even supplements—you need to understand the difference between relative risk and absolute risk. It could change how you think about treatment, prevention, and even the “miracle” headlines in your newsfeed.

This one distinction can help you spot hype, avoid fear-based decisions, and confidently take back control of your health.

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So What Is Relative Risk, Really?

Let’s break this down without the fluff.

Relative risk compares two groups. It tells you how much more likely or less likely something is to happen in comparison—but not how likely it is in the real world.

Here’s a simple example:

Let’s say 2 out of every 100 people who don’t take a drug get a certain disease. Now, in the group that does take the drug, only 1 out of 100 people get it.

That’s a reduction from 2% to 1%.

But when a drug company tells the story, they say, “This treatment cuts your risk by 50%.”

Technically? That’s true—1 is 50% less than 2.

But practically? That means your personal risk only dropped 1%.

Does that sound like a miracle cure now?

Now Let’s Talk About the Number That Actually Matters

Forget the hype for a second. Let’s get to the number that should be guiding your decision-making:

Absolute risk.

This is the real risk—the one that applies directly to you. Not a comparison, not a headline, not some cherry-picked stat that sounds impressive. Just the actual odds of something happening, based on real numbers.

Let’s go back to that same example:

Without the treatment: 2 out of 100 people get sick → That’s a 2% absolute risk
With the treatment: 1 out of 100 people get sick → That’s a 1% absolute risk

So even though the relative risk sounds like a 50% reduction (which grabs headlines and sells meds), the actual benefit to you is a 1% drop.

That’s it. Just one percent.

Not so jaw-dropping anymore, is it?

This is why I always say—if you don’t ask for the absolute risk, you’re only getting half the truth. And if someone can’t tell you what the real numbers are? You’re not just being under-informed—you’re being misled.

This isn't about being anti-medicine or anti-science. It’s about being informed, not manipulated. Knowing what the numbers actually mean gives you power. Power to say yes. Power to say no. Power to ask better questions.

That’s how you make decisions that are right for you—not based on fear, but based on facts.

Why Most People (Even Smart Ones) Get health Statistics Wrong

Let’s be real—this stuff is confusing on purpose.

You see a headline that says, “This new drug cuts your cancer risk by 50%.” Sounds massive, right?

But what if your actual risk was only 2% to begin with? That “50% reduction” just dropped you to 1%. That’s it. One percent.

Here’s the trick: Relative risk exaggerates. Absolute risk clarifies.

The reason most people (including doctors, by the way) fall for this? Because we’re not trained to ask, “Compared to what?” We hear a big number and assume big results. But that’s not always the case.

And here’s the kicker—this isn’t always done maliciously. It’s just how data is packaged and sold. It sounds better. It grabs attention. It gets people to say yes.

Pharmaceutical ads use it. News headlines thrive on it. Even scientific studies lead with it.

Because “50% reduction” looks a lot sexier than “1% difference.”

But here’s the cost: People get scared. People overreact. They end up agreeing to treatments or medications without ever understanding how much—or how little—it actually impacts them.

You don’t need a PhD in statistics. You just need to pause and ask the right question: “What’s the actual risk to me?”

Because once you start thinking in real-world numbers instead of hype-driven percentages, everything changes.

When It’s Your Life on the Line, Trust the Numbers That Tell the Truth

Let’s cut to the chase.

When you’re making a big health decision—whether it’s starting a new medication, saying yes to a surgery, or even changing your diet—you’ve got to stop and ask:

What’s actually at stake here?

Because this is where the rubber meets the road. This isn’t about theory. This is about you, your body, your future. And that means absolute risk is the number you should trust.

Why?

Because it tells you the truth about:

How likely something really is to happen to you
What kind of benefit you’re actually getting
Whether the trade-off is worth it—side effects, cost, lifestyle, time, risk

Let’s take a real-world example.

Let’s say a medication claims it lowers your risk of heart attack by 25%. Sounds like a win, right?

But here’s what they’re not shouting: your actual chance of having a heart attack might have only been 4% to begin with.

So now you’re at 3%.That’s a 1% absolute risk reduction.

Let that sink in: You’re taking a daily drug for the rest of your life… for a 1% benefit.

Now ask yourself:

Is that worth the side effects?
The cost?
The daily commitment?
What if you could do something different in your life and get the same risk reduction without taking the medication?
Is it really worth it?

Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. But at least now you’re making that call based on facts, not hype.

Let's use another real world example.

Breast Cancer Screening: The Misleading 20% Reduction Claim

A widely cited statistic suggests that mammography screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 20%. At first glance, this figure appears significant and persuasive. However, this percentage represents a relative risk reduction, not an absolute risk reduction, which can be more informative for individual decision-making.

To illustrate, consider a group of 1,000 women:

Without screening, approximately 5 women might die from breast
With screening, this number might decrease to 4 women.

This change constitutes an absolute risk reduction of just 1 in 1,000, or 0.1%. Yet, when expressed as a relative risk reduction, it becomes 20%, which sounds more impactful

This framing can lead individuals to overestimate the benefits of screening, potentially influencing their healthcare decisions without a full understanding of the actual risk reduction involved.

Now, you're probably thinking "a 1% reduction of breast cancer for a simple test is worth it," and it might be for you. You should consider your health history, lifestyle, and cost and time for the exams.

The point is to be informed and make the decision that is right for you, not because someone else using hyped up statistics tells you that you should.

🔑 Key Takeaway

Relative risk is how much something changes compared to something else
Absolute risk is how much it actually impacts you

If you remember one thing from this post, let it be this:

Relative risk tells a story. Absolute risk tells the truth.

Real-World Tip: Ask This One Question

Look—next time you hear a health stat, a new study, or some doctor saying, “This cuts your risk in half,” don’t just nod along.

Stop and ask:

👉 “What’s the absolute risk?”👉 “What are the real numbers?”

If they can’t tell you… that’s a red flag.

It means someone is either guessing, selling, or repeating a headline without understanding the full picture. And that’s exactly how smart people end up in fear-driven decisions they regret later.

How One Story Snapped It All Into Focus for Me

I want to share a story from my mentor Dr. Ronald Grisanti that really hit home—and honestly, it changed the way I look at medical decision-making.

Dr. Grisanti and his wife, Debbie, sat in a consult with a radiation oncologist. She’d recently been referred by her OBGYN oncologist to discuss 28 rounds of pelvic radiation as a “preventive” measure.

The doctor came in with what sounded like a strong case:

“There’s a 33% risk of a poor outcome if she doesn’t do radiation.”

That number sounds terrifying, right?

But here’s the part that stood out to me—Dr. Grisanti didn’t just take that number at face value. He stopped and asked the question most people forget to ask:

“33% of what?”

That’s when the difference between relative risk and absolute risk really showed up.

He asked the doctor for the absolute risk—the actual odds of his wife having a recurrence if she skipped the radiation.

The doctor didn’t know. Let that sink in.

They left the appointment with more questions than answers. So Dr. Grisanti did what I respect most: he went home and did the research himself.

And what he found? That big, scary 33% number—when put in context—translated into an absolute benefit of maybe 4–5%.

That’s it. All of a sudden, this “you-have-to-do-it” treatment didn’t look so black and white anymore.

Here’s the lesson he took away (and the same one I now carry into every patient interaction and every decision I make in my own life):

Don’t let fear and numbers out of context push you into a choice.

Ask the real questions:

What’s the absolute risk?
What’s the benefit in real numbers?
How many people need this treatment for one person to actually benefit? (That’s the “Number Needed to Treat” or NNT.)
What are the side effects, both short- and long-term?
Are there other options—safer, simpler, or more individualized?

The truth is, most people never get those answers. They just hear a stat, get scared, and go along with it.

But you deserve better than that. You deserve clarity—not hype. Context—not pressure. That’s what real health freedom looks like.

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⚠️ Medical Disclaimer

Always consult with a licensed physician or healthcare practitioner with advanced training in integrative or functional medicine before starting any of the strategies mentioned above. What works for one person may not be appropriate for another, especially if you have underlying health conditions, take medications, or are managing a chronic illness. Personalized care always beats one-size-fits-all advice.

⚠️ From Dr. Chris Shiflett

The information on this website—and everything I share—is not meant to replace a one-on-one relationship with a qualified healthcare professional. It’s not medical advice. It's a sharing of knowledge based on my personal experience, years in clinical practice, and the evidence-based work of leaders in the functional medicine space, including Dr. Grisanti and the Functional Medicine University community.

I strongly encourage you to make your own healthcare decisions in partnership with a provider trained in functional or integrative medicine. To learn more about functional medicine training, visit FunctionalMedicineUniversity.com. To find a qualified practitioner, check out the CFMP directory at FunctionalMedicineDoctors.com.

Important: You may share this content in full—including contact info, copyright, and source—without requesting permission, as long as it’s used for non-profit educational purposes only. For any other use, written permission is required from Dr. Chris Shiflett.